Global Steel Market Experiences Cyclical Structural Changes
As infrastructure investment and manufacturing activities continue globally, world steel demand is entering a new seasonal growth period. According to the latest World Steel Association Short-Term Outlook and statistics, global steel demand is expected to remain stable in 2025–2026, with a moderate rebound in the coming year. This trend exhibits distinct temporal characteristics in different regions.
North America: Stable Growth and Cyclical Demand
In the North American market, steel demand is driven by construction, manufacturing orders, and infrastructure projects:
The United States is expected to see a slight increase in steel demand in 2025, mainly driven by large-scale projects such as highways and bridges, and pre-orders from manufacturing. Growth is expected to strengthen further in 2026 due to continued government investment plans.
In Canada, steel demand is stable, driven by real estate and energy infrastructure construction, with orders typically rising at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year.
This "seasonal rise—year-end off-season" pattern is particularly pronounced in the North American market and is closely related to the seasonal construction cycle. Latin America: Infrastructure-Driven Growth Cycle
Latin America: Infrastructure-Driven Growth Cycle
The Latin American steel market exhibited a consistent regional growth trend in 2025, although demand timing varied across countries:
Brazil saw robust demand throughout the year due to steady progress in government-led social housing and transportation infrastructure construction.
Argentina experienced a significant recovery in 2025, with its steel mills resuming production during the market rebound. Demand is expected to be seasonally concentrated in the third quarter to the end of the year.
Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile were more influenced by mining and port construction projects, with steel orders concentrated during the project launch period after the rainy season.
Overall, Latin American demand is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with peak demand in most countries occurring from late spring to summer.
Southeast Asia Market: Surge in Demand from Developing Economies
The Southeast Asian market stands out for its seasonality and growth potential in steel demand:
Steel demand in Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam is primarily concentrated after the agricultural harvest (autumn to early the following year) and during the new fiscal year's government budget release period.
Vietnam and Indonesia are projected to be among the bright spots for global steel demand growth in 2026, closely linked to ongoing urbanization cycles.
The region's seasonal patterns are highly correlated with export manufacturing orders and large-scale regional infrastructure planning.
Russia and Central Asia: Cyclicality and Export Orientation
In Russia and the CIS region, steel demand is heavily influenced by heavy industry and energy projects. Construction slows in winter due to weather factors, with demand peaking in spring and autumn. Steel prices in these markets typically recover by the end of the year after seasonal adjustments.
Middle East and North Africa: Energy Investment Drives Steel Cycle
Energy- and infrastructure-intensive countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia will continue to expand their construction scale in 2025–2026, driving a concentrated release of steel demand during the favorable climate period (late autumn to early spring of the following year).
Saudi Arabia, particularly driven by large-scale logistics and tourism infrastructure construction, has seen a relatively balanced steel supply cycle across quarters.
Global Trends Outlook: Demand Remains Stable, Poised for Recovery in 2026
Industry experts predict that global steel demand in 2025 will remain at a level similar to 2024, indicating short-term market stability.
A moderate growth of approximately 1.3% is projected for 2026, with developing economies being the primary driver of growth.
This growth reflects a shared response from countries worldwide to infrastructure upgrades, cyclical demand from new projects, and a manufacturing recovery.
Whether in North America, Latin America, Asia, or the Middle East and Russia, the seasonal rhythms of steel demand are closely intertwined with macroeconomic investment plans. Accurately grasping these market rhythms not only helps companies with precise supply chain planning but also accelerates product market penetration during peak growth periods.
For more information on global steel market trends and forecasts, please continue to follow our Industry Dynamics section on our website.
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