Analysis of Domestic Steel Price Trends in October | Royal Group

Since October began, domestic steel prices have experienced volatile fluctuations, rattling the entire steel industry chain. A combination of factors has created a complex and volatile market.

From an overall price perspective, the market experienced a period of decline in the first half of the month followed by an upward trend, with overall volatility. According to relevant statistics, as of October 10th, steel rebar prices rose by 2 yuan/ton, hot-rolled steel coil fell by 5 yuan/ton, standard medium-sized plate fell by 5 yuan/ton, and strip steel fell by 12 yuan/ton. However, by mid-month, prices began to fluctuate. As of October 17th, the price of HRB400 rebar had dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coil had dropped by 120 yuan/ton; the price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil had dropped by 40 yuan/ton; and standard medium-sized plate had dropped by 70 yuan/ton.

From a product perspective, construction steel saw accelerated purchases after the holiday, leading to a rebound in demand and price increases of 10-30 yuan/ton in some markets. However, over time, rebar prices began to decline in mid-October. Hot-rolled coil prices fell in October. Cold-rolled product prices remained relatively stable, with a slight decline.

Price Change Factors

There are many factors behind price fluctuations. On the one hand, increased supply has put downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, a slight decline in domestic and international demand has created a supply-demand imbalance characterized by weak sales and stable output. While new energy vehicles and shipbuilding sectors within the manufacturing industry are driving demand for high-end steel, the continued decline in the real estate market has significantly impacted demand for construction steel, resulting in overall weak demand.

Furthermore, policy factors cannot be ignored. The US's imposition of tariffs on "strategic products" such as Chinese steel and the escalation of global trade barriers have further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance in the domestic market.

In summary, domestic steel prices fluctuated downward in October, influenced by a variety of factors, including supply-demand imbalances and diverging policies. It is expected that steel prices will still face great pressure in the short term, and the market needs to pay close attention to changes in the supply and demand structure and further policy trends.